All eyes on inflation numbers now

PPI on Friday.
CPI follows on Tuesday.

There is increasing evidence (its not conclusive yet) that inflation measures are ticking up. Although the Fed has given guidance that its going to keep the pedal on the gas even if inflation gets above target level, I think this commitment will waver more quickly than their talk would have us believe. The risks to Fed credibility of standing aside while inflation sustains higher than target levels (and, just to be clear, we are not there yet) are just too great.

Hence, any signs that inflation is increasing at too hot a pace are going to be jumped at. Signs of tame inflation, thats cool – no panic (even more support for the stock market); but, at any signs of inflation heat, watch out … All IMHO, of course.

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