Probabilities favour a bounce. But I’m just going with the flow ATM.

Just a real quick post.

I’m reading many, many sources (good ones) pointing out how ‘oversold’ (for want of a better word, I hate that one) many markets are. Many mkts being >2 or 3 std devs. below their average. These are reasonable calls from reasonable sources (I don’t pay much attention to idiot sources). They all rightly point out that the probabilities favour a bounce in mkts from here. And, let’s face it, on any reasonable assessment the ES (as a proxy for US equities overall) has held up reasonably well (on a relative basis, it hasn’t collapsed like so many other mkts have).

So a bounce ( a big one) would not suprise. I think what would surprise is a continued fall, a sharp fall even more surprising. And the mkt has a penchant for surprises, doesn’t it?

So, I’m not making a call, just noting the tone out there, FWIW. If I had to make a call, it would be to look for the bounce, but my conviction is low.

As always, go with the flow and switch sides as the data dictates (and have a method for doing this).

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