I’m staying with the consensus today … not convinced this pre-mkt upmove has real legs.

Plenty of summaries around of the action last week, and what to expect now. Don’t want to rehash, so here are some things that stuck out for me.

Hugely bullish reports from Goldman and Citi got a lot of coverage, and a lot of “this is the top” talk going. Reasonable to raise this possibility, they did seem quite extreme.

So, the mkt got a boost for being bearish. Again, seemed a reasonable outlook.

China ‘hard landing’. This sort of fear gets raised from time-to-time. A lot of the perma bears are constantly on about it. Like the boy who cried wolf they are consistently wrong. But have to recognise that there are times when even permas are right for a time. And the China fears seemed justified. Lots of political unrest there didn’t help.

And so we got an ES sell-off. But into a very short market. So it didn’t last – too many buyers around. And so it closed reasonably well for the week.

And this morning we have had Bernanke speaking again. Nothing really new, but still a reiteration that the liquidity pump is still not put away.

And so as I type we are above 1400. I’m not convinced on the sustainability of this current strength though. I’m staying with the consensus of looking for a deeper sell-off. Not the end of the world, Chalk me up as being a bit of a bear for today.

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