As the S&P500 approaches its recent bull mkt highs …

I follow quite a few blogs/news sources and about 50-odd on Twitter (BTW, I don’t think I use Twitter properly, I only read Tweets when I have it up live, I don’t read all the Tweets from everyone I follow …is this wrong? There are a few I read everything from though. Anyway, on with the post … ).

These sources I follow I believe to be a bunch of reasonable, rational bloggers/tweeters/journos (except for one uber-elgrande-perma-bear, a blog that nevertheless reports/tweets the news the quickest – only the bear stuff mind – and is useful for this reason … you all know the blog/tweeter I’m talking about … if you don’t let’s just say that paying much attention to his/her ranting is going to leave you with pretty much zero-edge 99% of the time). Yep, reasonable, level-headed … so when there is a notable confluence of thought, opinion, sentiment (call it what you will), its worth paying attention to – and putting it in the context of the market moves. Like the day last week when the ES fell below 1300 and bearishness was thick in the air (ps. not all were bearish, just quite a vocal few).

Its starting to feel the same sort of way, but instead of the bearishness coming after a sustained fall, this time its coming after a good few day rally, near recent highs. It is giving me pause for thought. Being a little circumspect is a reasonable response – we are, after all, near bull-market highs. The points raised are entirely reasonable.

Anyway … here are some of the items concerning me, in no particular order:

Apple Results Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, Golub Sayse
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-07/apple-results-distorting-s-p-500-earnings-golub.html

Apple’s report “obfuscates the fact that the underlying earnings trend is really weak,” Golub said. “It’s a terrific company, but it’s also important you get a sense of how the average stock, the average company is doing. You want to make sure you don’t distort that view.”

Bernanke Economy Proves Critics Clueless on Fed
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/bernanke-led-economy-proving-critics-clueless-about-federal-reserve-policy.html
This was a very popular item yesterday. BTW – I should admit one of my (many) biases here. This is the sort of article I lap up. I love sticking it to the critics of Bernanke and the Fed. There are legitimate criticisms that can be made, but it seems to me much of the bile directed at Mr. B and The Fed is from know-nothing losers who really need to get a life and try to achieve something … anything. Anyway … the fact that this was so popular gives me pause … just seems to be an expression of bullish exuberance. And exuberance rarely ends well.

Dow Transports Attract Doubters
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/02/08/dow-transports-attract-doubters/
Also a popular item on Barry Ritholtz’s blog re the transports.

From one of THE BEST blogs out there comes this:
Technical indicators point to need for caution
http://soberlook.com/2012/02/technical-signs-point-to-caution.html
and this:
Upside risks to crude oil prices
http://soberlook.com/2012/02/risks-to-crude-oil-prices-are-to-upside.html

Finally, and importantly, Tsachy Mishal has this to say:
Highway To The Danger Zone
http://capitalobserver.com/?p=6634

The list of reasons to be wary of the market in the short term is growing:

Go to the link to read his take on the current market position.
Mishal’s blog & tweets are a MUST. Brilliant work – live.

———-

OK, so my wariness is racked up quite high.
BUT – there is an underlying bid tone to the market that can’t be ignored.

Check out this:
GAMECHANGER: The ECB Opens The Door To Debt Forgiveness Across Europe
http://www.businessinsider.com/gamechanger-the-ecb-opens-the-door-to-debt-forgiveness-across-europe-2012-2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29
Headline is a bit OTT, but significant nonetheless.

And this … which I think sums up the market over the past many months, and who-knows how long into the future. Bolding in quote is mine:
Putting Apple in perspective
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com.au/2012/02/putting-apple-in-perspective.html

If anything demonstrates how cheap this market is, Apple does. Investors today are getting paid very handsomely to assume the risk of a calamity. Anything short of a calamity, and prices could continue to rise.

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