I am reading this series (part 2 of 5 just posted) with keen interest. My interest is from a number of different perspectives, not just for the perspective of ‘recession forecasting’. I am particularly interested in the principles and practices behind the methodology and its application to actual trading models (when & where to buy & sell).
Part 1: Evaluating Recession Forecasts: What Every Investor Must Know
Part 2: Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli
Jeff Miller at a Dash of Insight is a MUST read.