Good article for those (like me) fed up with ‘experts’ those who are ‘often wrong, never in doubt’.
Q&A: An expert on experts tells how to spot the bad ones
Some quotes (bolding mine, the important bits – trust me, I’m an expert at this 🙂 )
How do you become an expert? Don’t you need degrees, stamps of approval, some vetting?
There are endless books on how to become an expert and a lot of courses. We went to a course that manufactures experts. The class was made up of respectable people, doctors, lawyers, fitness trainers. The course promised to make them look and sound like experts so they could go on television. The central message was to sound certain. Never use the word maybe. Always say always.
Life is complicated. We need expert advice. How do you tell a wise advisor?
The one who seems uncertain but offers ideas on how you can think about something.
How do you now get financial advice?
I do it differently now. I treat my financial advisor like someone you chat with, just one more voice in the wilderness. I get his opinion and others. I do a lot more work, more reading.
So now you’re an expert on experts. Why should I believe you?
I started as a regular person and now I’m practically an expert. The ultimate message is use your own brain and take more responsibility. There are no gods out there.
Tetlock found that the best experts were uncertain, because that kept them thinking about it. But that expert you rarely see on television. They’re boring.