Been meaning to write something about this for a while, and had never got around to it. Its a useful model of the trading/investing process to have in your head. Keynes’ ‘Beauty Contest’. I’ve found an article about it, save me writing about it. Its by Robert Shiller (yes, the famous, and deservedly so) in The New York Times.
The Beauty Contest That’s Shaking Wall St.
Have a think, too, about not only what others are ‘thinking’, but about how others are positioned and what effects things like margin calls are going to have on their decisions (and yours!). Useful for thinking about the sell-off I was talking about from last Thursday morning that then came to fruition in the Thursday cash hours, then into Friday, and continued in Europe on Monday.