Global economy – the leading indicators have been pointing to a bout of weakness since about March, the ‘perception’ of weakness has entered the market consciousness in the past month (with a vengeance).
US economy – the data is weaker than it has been for months.
Europe – continuing turmoil.
Other – well, plenty of other, but Libya appears to have changed hands over the weekend. Watching the oil price on this – if it doesn’t have some sort of reasonable spike then I think this is indicative of confirmation that the US and global economic weakness is an important factor in the market’s perceptions right now and that its not just all about Europe. If no bounce in oil then watch out below (again) for the ES.
The market? Deeply pessimistic. Justified pessimism? – are the bad events/perceptions priced in and a bounce is due? Let’s look at the response; Asian markets are not yet open, let alone Europe and the US, will be closely watching when they do to get a grip on the response. Gut says it looks like the ES goes lower first.
Is the deep pessimism indicative of the potential for, at the very least, a relief rally? Well, yes. But typing this is just so much blah, blah, blah …. its all in the timing. And, like I said, gut says lower first.