+20 – 22 = I am such a guru ……………………………….. not

Might be a few posts today; let me start with a really quick look at my previous post. For yesterday I was looking for a downward bias in prices for the session. If I am exceedingly generous with myself I might be able to say I am maybe one or two points to the good on that call. If, on the other hand, I want to be honest with myself (the best way forward in this business) I got that call completely wrong for the first few hours and something like 20+ points (and while some people will say 20 points in the ES is neither here nor there, if you ask me, 20 points is a big move in the ES). Yes, the price fell away from late morning all through the afternoon, so if I had a third hand I would be generous to myself again and say I was merely early. (BTW, early is a synonym for wrong when trading levered products like futures).

There was an early clue that being bearish (at least for the first few hours and the 20 up points) was not the logical stance, and no, its not hindsight. I actually wrote it in the post. Here it is.

After noting the higher than expected PPI (relevant part bolded):

The ES is “like ………..yeah, whatever” (that is, no reaction to the release (at least not so far). Which is interesting).

So, the market action was telling me I was probably wrong to be bearish at the time (please remember that I am short-term trading, so at the time is pertinent). Hate it when its obvious and I still get it wrong. Really no excuse for that.

OK, outlook now? Well, really, I prefer to reserve judgement until closer to the cash hours open … but my bias is still bearish. No, I haven’t joined the ranks of the zombie-perma-bears, I will be happy to switch sides (see last week’s rabid bullishness, for example), I’m not looking for the end-of-the-world trade, just taking in a bear bias (see the “About” page for an explanation of how I use my “bias”). I will, of course, re-assess this as we approach the cash hours open and may well have flipped by then (some will argue that … oh, never mind), but I think not.

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