I’m not the ‘Armageddon’ type. Not a ‘doom and gloom’er. It’s wayyyyyyyy tooooooo fashionable, way to much of a populist bandwagon, and, an overwhelming majority of the time, completely wrong.
I have ranted many times on this here blog against the doom and gloomers and how wrong they (pretty much always) are. They only become right when they keep repeating the same turgid garbage again and again until eventually reality briefly coincides. Then they bask in the accolades of fellow doomers for a few moments. But, hey, whatever floats your boat (or sinks it, in these cases … I suppose).
Much better to set up a framework, an alert, what to look for to justify an Armageddony-type outlook. That way instead of trying to impose your view on the market, you allow the market to provide you with direction to a useful view. This is such an exercise, here at the Global Macro Monitor blog. Pretty straightforward. Watch out for concurrent moves in these directions: gold up, USD down, stocks down, USTs down. Concurrent moves like these will be indicative of the market becoming more and more concerned (and, conversely, concurrent moves such as these that begin but then start to break the pattern would be a good opportunity for the counter-trade … the ‘sunshine and lollipops’ trade, perhaps).
(ps. To those doomers who say, “Aha! But I’ve been warning of these dangers for years, long before the markets started to move!”
Well … you just don’t get it, do you? LOL)