Re Initial Claims

OK, so I wrote this last night, just before the NYSE open:

On another note, a few weeks ago I wrote about the potential for the initial claims figures to show some improvement as auto plants started to recover in the wake of the component supply problems from Japan (I got this idea from the Califia Beach Pundit blog, post here. And I really want him to be right). This hasn’t happened. I am wondering whether to affix a ‘yet’ to the end of that last sentence.

A post on the Califia Beach Pundit blog goes into more (timing) detail, posted a few hours after my post:
Next week’s unemployment claims could be exciting
In essence, Scott Grannis is expecting the initial claims numbers to show significant improvement, starting next Thursday (July 8). This will be a very welcome development.

My wariness last night of a continued rally was somewhat misplaced. Since writing the ES added another 10-odd points, the better than expected Chicago PMI figures being the catalyst (the move up started at 9.42am ET and never looked back, although it was a slow grind after these figures). Added to the reasonable Durable Goods figures from last Friday, there are signs the economy is coming out of the ‘soft patch’.

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