More questions than answers

Just having some (not quite) random thoughts.

Oil – regular readers will know my view on the effect of the high and persistently high oil prices. i.e. It is not good for the US consumer, someone I think we are all relying on to keep the US recovery on track (even though it is slowing a little) and the US stockmarkets climbing. Looking at the S&P (not the economy), the effect is not apparent (though the S&P is only climbing very slowly … more on this coming below). So far, so wrong.

Silver. Well, I don’t really look very much at the gold and silver markets. But, the hiking of margins on the silver futures has had very little dampening effect. Up. Trend intact. As is the gold trend. And the AUD.

The USD. Still falling. Trend intact.

Anyone seeing a pattern here?

The same-old, same-old that we have been used to for months/(and even years) now.

Seems to me the S&P is lagging, no? Had a good go to the top around the open yesterday, didn’t carry on with it (no pun intended). Been the case for a while now … each upthrust is not exactly rejected, but just sort of peters out. Weird. Hmmm.

Recently there has been a lot of chatter about potentially exiting QE2 a bit early, diminishing expectations of any QE3, and, if neither of these, then the certain end of QE2 coming up in a couple of months now. Maybe there has been a degree of spooking of the equity market, and a diminishing of the buying? (Admittedly only evident by a reluctance to rise … rather than any fall)? If so, there should be a sharp upmove on the S&P quite soon, if the buyers have been hanging off awaiting lower prices. Hmmm again.

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