Farnam Street is bombarding me with great articles today. Here are three, but I had to cull the list down from more. Really great stuff. (I am reading all of these articles in a trading and getting-better-at-trading context).
The Ambiguities of Experience
There are some jaw-dropping notes in this article. Think I might well be buying this book.
explores the role of experience in creating intelligence. … March convincingly argues that although individuals and organizations are eager to derive intelligence from experience, the inferences stemming from that eagerness are often misguided. The problems lie partly in errors in how people think, but even more so in properties of experience that confound learning from it. ‘Experience,’ March concludes, ‘may possibly be the best teacher, but it is not a particularly good teacher.’
Analysts were well aware that forces capable of generating unrest were present in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere. They said so often. But those forces had been present for years, even decades. “Specific triggers for how and when instability would lead to the collapse of various regimes cannot always be known or predicted”
Did you know that google publishes a magazine?
Companies as a whole are stuck in the rut of an old mindset. They think in outworn categories and follow habits and assumptions that are not, or only rarely, based on fact. They need to break out of that to understand the world the way it really is.