Pre-cash update … paying up for oil

1257GMT 24MAR2011

What are the worries/concerns for the US equity markets at present?
If you answered “Nothing” I am tempted to give you full marks.

The strength of the S&P is amazing, with all the negatives I can see around. The price of oil is a particular concern for me, not just the absolute level of the price, but the persistence of the high price (and the, so far, persistent rise). I can’t help but be concerned by this, its impact as a ‘tax’ on the consumer and, following on from that, its impact on spending and thereby company results. Other factors – Europe, in particular Portugal, is featured heavily in the news this morning. And not in a good way.

OK, having vented… moving along.

Yesterday I saw bids around on the ES, today I am seeing decent offers around. 1300/02 and thereabouts should be the ‘resistance’ for a while. Oh, and this is not confirmation bias, the model I am looking at is not subjective, like I am. So, offers around suggest to me to adopt a bias to the downside for the next few hours.

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