Monday 31JAN2011 1415GMT
OK – a couple of points today.
1. I am reading through the blogs and news, getting a grip on the economic perceptions, the political, and so forth. BUT – today the focus is Egypt and other countries that might suffer ‘contagion’. Today is going to be a day to focus, more than ever, on the tape. News out of Egypt will be an exogenous factor, and could (probably will) give us extra volatility. Focus and risk control are going to be the watchwords today.
2. The US equity markets didn’t fall on Friday ‘because’ of Egypt. Referring to the Egyptian news as a catalyst for the fall is probably fair enough, but the equity markets were overdue for some sort of selloff after a very strong sustained up run. I turned overall bearish around 1220 …………. see point 3 (next point) for what turning bearish at 1220, 80 points before the high, actually means.
3. I turned bearish around 1220, weeks ago. The high on the run was 1299.50. So, becoming bearish at 1220 doesn’t make me prescient, it makes me WRONG.
WRONG, WRONG, WRONG. Anyone who thinks being so early with a call is not wrong is not a trader.
4. If I see any more headlines with ‘Walk Like An Egyptian’ in them, I will literally scream.