Thursday 11NOV2010 0104GMT
This might be a bit of a stream-of-consciousness sort of day, may well be a few posts (or maybe just this one).
The US trade balance fell, most interesting to me was the decline in imports by 1%. The widening US trade balance, due to surging imports, was being cited by the US economy bulls (amongst which I count myself) in recent months as a sign of US economic strength. Now, while one months’ figures does not make a new trend I have just noted to myself the fall in imports and have notched up the wariness a little.
Along with this fall in imports is the UCLA/Ceridien Pulse of Commerce Index (basically a real-time diesel fuel consumption measure) falling too. Again, a measure cited by the US economy bulls in the recent as as evidence of economic strength.
China: new measures to control capital inflow, and bumped up reserve requirements for banks there. Needs to be noted.
Europe: developments on the periphery (notably the bit sticking most out into the North Atlantic (Ireland, in case my geography is a bit dodgy)) continue to deteriorate. Needs to be noted.
G20 meeting. Probably irrelevant but might get a hiccup (or some sort of expulsion of warmed air, from the other end perhaps).
The amounts of QE2 dollars in coming months are going to hinge on economic developments, so it is well to note what is going on.
The ES? Well, since seeing the good-size selling in the ES during Monday’s overnight session it has been a bit of a move lower. Nothing dramatic.