Wed 08Sep2010, 05:13GMT
Been a while … Frink was spot on with the overly bearish sentiment (way, way overly bearish). A few days later, and a few bounces later the market is much higher (and has been higher), has had a bit of not so dreadful economic news (only a bit, mind you) has had a day off (Labor Day), has come back from holidays (apparently), has sold off the notes and bonds (10 yrs and 30 yrs) somewhat, has rekindled its love for the Yen and the CHF, hates the Euro again, wants some tax cuts, wants some stimulus (Obama wants to spend 50 billion on public infrastructure-type jobs …. hello? $50 billion, did he find some change down the back of the oval office couch?) … and I am sure some other stuff I have missed.
Funny how the market focus shifts around. The Euro problems never went away, and they started re-appearing on radar screens about a week ago, but only the past few days has the focus shifted back to them. I’m not whingin’ or moanin’ or nothin’, just saying it is worth knowing the focus switches and changes, no point bogging down on one or two issues and ranting on ad nauseum, be aware of what the market is focusing on, and just go with it, that’s where the moves are, that’s where the money is. Easy to say, I know, but if it was easy … well, you know the rest.
So Europe is again doomed (at least this week) and the ES gets sold off, what 15 points or so … And what is with the low volume yesterday? It was a down day and the volume was low, bit different … Just on that, how funny is it that the perma-bear blogs (like Zero Hedge) rant and rail on and on about how the equity market trade up on low volume but donw on high volume. Then when it trades down on low volume you hear not a peep? Well, that’s what we call bias folks. Also, apart from perma-bear bias, there are new market dynamics at work that ensure down days are pretty much always going to be higher volume than up days (until that changes, of course), but don’t tell the perma-bears, the entertainment value of their ranting is just too good to spoil. But, I digress, just what is with the low volume down day? So, pretty much a nothing sell-off, on low volume …. Beats me.
No. 1 is a looking a bit softish, just sideways, consolidatey-type soft, not sell-off type soft, though. (I just made up ‘consolidatey’ … you could probably tell).
No. 2 …. Ahhh, now this is more interesting … looks like there is some good buying around … levels a bit tricky, but say 1090-ish (it is lower as I type, but it is midnight in NYC, so volumes low). Have to check this out prior to the cash open, but as I type it looks like a bit of support on Wednesday morning for the ES. Combined with yesterday’s weak selling and low volume, and with no. 1 model’s sideway’s call, I am a better buyer in the morning than seller, looking for a rally in the morning session.