07AUG10 GMT 02:15

The NFP report has been released, and the reporting of the numbers has been very downcast. I am not saying the numbers were any good for the US, but from the perspective of a trader it is at least helpful to look at them with some dispassion.

OK, the ‘headline’ was -131,000. This is the number the market focuses on, so reporting it is obvious. Expectations (according to the ForexFactory consensus number) were for a headline number of -63,000. OK, so we got -131K on expectations of -63K. That is an unequivocally bad result.

Contributing to the -131K result was a decline in temporary workers hired for the US census, this contributed -141K. So now I say, see it wasn’t so bad after all was it? But I am not going to say that – that’s 141,000 people who wont be getting paid next week (give or take), and wont be buying so much stuff. Not good.

But what I would like to do is look at how the employment picture would look if you take out the census workers over the past few months, just to try to get a handle on the underlying move in the employment market.

Thankfully, Calculated Risk has done this. You will need to look at two posts of theirs:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/july-employment-report-12k-jobs-ex.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
and
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/employment-report-why-different-payroll.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

This graph summarises:

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/employment-recessions-july-2010.html

Doing this give a clearer picture than just looking at the July headline number.

There are some other things to look at,
Previous months figures were revised to be worse than previously reported
Working hours increased (I need to find out more on this)

Will be back with more over the weekend (or Monday).

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