Tue 18 Aug 1.30pm AEST. I still don’t know whyI am blogging, last time I updated was 2 weeks agao so maybe its not my thing. I tend to get things down on paper or email someone with my ideas, s’pose I just have to get into the habit of blogging?
Ok – so plenty of action in the ES lately. Tracking the US economy and the economic figure releases is sure to turn you into a mess. One day it looks good, the next day not. Now, the funny thing is, this is not a bad way to view the ES and to trade it – one day it wants to go up, the next, down. Try to get on the right side each day is not a bad start …. It’s all good!
Ok, so since the exuberance over the Q2 GDP and the recent NFP figures, the mood has soured – recent figures are more subdued, and some downright negative (still some bizarrely strong positives too – last night’s Empire State Manufacturing Index was amazingly strong …. maybe just too amazing, though).
OK, so what’s happening?
US Treasuries have been sooo strong in the last 6 days. Last week was one huge upweek for these – the extent and strength of the upmove was a huge heads up for a weaker ES, which came in the ‘overnight’ session on Monday – massive drop. The RTH session was just chop city, though – must say after 25 odd pt drop ‘overnight’ that didn’t surprise me.
OK, so UST strong still.
In the past 18 hours or so, EUR/USD got back some of its losses &
AUD got back some of its losses.
OIL still weak after some sharp short covers late last week.
China stockmarkets today have stabilised after decent losses last week and yesterday.
These are the main things I look at (currently anyway, always changing…). I try to avoid bloggers and pundits, but not totally successfully – there is just too much good info on some of them to not read them … but I try to not read ‘opinion’ – just the facts please ma’am.
So, with where things are at, I am looking for some stability on the ES ………. actually, scrap that ………. next update is just prior to the 930 NY open, may as well wait until then to form my view ……… will just ponder until then.