I don’t know why I am blogging. I am keeping a diary of my trading-related activites, so why not? Maybe it will be ok, maybe not.
Trading the ES, just the first few hours of the session. This may change. Anything can change.
About this blog. I tried to research some of the fundamentals of the US economy, out of interest to give me a view on the ES. Profitably trading the ES is the goal, not understanding the economy, not writing a blog. So I go to a few of the well known blogs that it seems everyone reads. Mostly all I see is diatribes on either what should be done by someone to make the economy go better or that everyone is wrong and the markets should be going down, not up, or up, not down, or whatever the case is for that day. Where is the analysis? Or, should I ask, where is the analysis that’s not trying to make a point or skew the info or whatever. Where is the analysis of what is happening, whats reasonable to expect, and whats likely to happen. The analysis I want is to help generate trading-related ideas. Not stuff that seems to be designed to attract readers.
Attract readers. This seems to be the goal of many blogs. Get famous. Get on the mainstream media. I don’t know, I could be wrong. So, I’m going to say: “Don’t read this blog”. That’s not what its for. If you do read it I hope its useful to you. If you want to send any useful comments, please do so. Useless comments will be edited away. I decide what is useful or not.
OK, so the analysis.
Context: ES has been trading up. A lot of people say it shouldn’t be so strong, the economy is stuffed, what’s the equities doing so strong? Whatever. The ES is strong and is remaining strong (as I write anyway). Thats what I have to deal with, not what should be reasonably happening. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid, right? (Keynes, right?).
So I look at the ES and I think, yeah, way too extended to the top. I think it too. But it keeps hanging in there.
OK, didn’t I say time for some analysis?
Yesterday we had Personal Income out pre-mkt. What a bit worse than expected. The ES came off a bit (as did other risk assets).
Had a lowish volume start tot eh RTH. Price a bit weak. Very choppy I thought and the first 20 mins or so looked like technically it was trying to go lower. Not doing too well, though, didnt really get anywhewre.
About 5 mins or so before the 10am release (Pending home sales) the attempted direction changed to up and it was a bit smoother, traded up into the release (nothing suss) … the figure was much better than expected, bit of a rally then some drift off and sideways. Ok, sorry, this is not meant to be a review of what happened. Long story short, I noticed on my technicals that the mkt tried to go lower again. the tech were telling me to short, but it wouldnt go anywhere and then put in a reasonable rally for the rest of the session to close near highs.
This is significant – it was doint the same last week, tech telling me to shor tit, price activity not following through and stayed strong.
Look like more strength coming for next days (this can change of course, will let you know).
Finishing up now. As I do risk assets look good. Safety assets look weak. More upside for the ES.
next update in about 10 hours (very brief update)